2806 DEEP CANYON

HORSESHOE BAY, Texas, 78657

Redeemable DeedpendingSells Oct 6, 2026 · in 5 days

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Opening bid

$4,679

Assessed value

$26,000

Market / AVM

—

Taxes owed

—

Parcel number: R000037231
Case number: 23101
Land use: SALE
Building: —
Acreage: —
Lot size: —
Year built: —
Owner of record: —

Aerial view of 2806 DEEP CANYON — the parcel

Aerial view of 2806 DEEP CANYON — what is around it

Site & surroundings

Physical conditions that affect value and rarely appear on a listing.

Nothing adverse found within range of this parcel.

Context

FEMA flood zone X
Outside the 1% annual chance floodplain.
Elevation 871 ft
Ground elevation at the parcel. Compare with the FEMA base flood elevation where one is published.
Tract median home value $707,300
Self-reported median across the whole tract — context for whether a number is plausible, not a comparable and never a bid input.
Median household income $126,957
Tract median household income. Sets what a local buyer can finance.
0% of homes vacant year-round in Census Tract 9704.01
6 of 1,517 units vacant year-round, around or below the national tract average. A further 631 unit(s) are vacant seasonally — second homes rather than distress — so a headline vacancy rate quoted elsewhere for this tract will read 42%.

County records

Official appraiser / assessor — free, always available. Copy the parcel number if the link opens a search page.

Llano County rules

Sale type: Redeemable Deed
Redemption: 2 years for homestead/ag/mineral properties; 6 months for all other property
Return if redeemed: 25% penalty in year one, 50% in year two (homestead/ag); 25% flat for the 6-month category
Statute: Texas Tax Code Title 1, Subtitle E, Ch. 34

Full county profile →

Historical comps

No historical bucket for TX|Redeemable Deed

No recorded comps yet for this state/sale type. Run deedpilot-copilot import-history --deep and build-history-index.

Index 2026-08-01 · 87,879 total recorded outcomes

Verify before you bid

This record was compiled from the published sale list. Parcels are pulled, redeemed, and re-priced up to the moment of sale. Confirm the lot is still in the sale, and confirm the opening bid, directly with the county.

Deal analysis

Your maximum bid

$11,795

Walk away above this. Projected profit at the ceiling: $7,800 (30% of ARV).

Opening bid $4,679

Room to bid $7,116

Confidence: medium — ARV derived from assessed value, not comps.

History-guided suggestion

$7,054

Under max by $4,741

≤ oracle maxBid

Co-pilot target using recorded auction history. Never above your maximum bid.

History sample

—

Median sold

—

p(redeem) prior

—

No historical bucket for TX|Redeemable Deed; suggestion uses oracle only.

Your assumptions

After-repair value (ARV)

Override the derived estimate with real comps

Rehab budget

You cannot inspect before bidding — budget for the worst plausible condition

Known surviving liens

Municipal code enforcement, special assessments, federal tax liens

Target margin — 30%

Required profit as a share of ARV. 30% is a common floor for tax-sale flips.

How that number is built

Assessed $26,000 ÷ 1 assessment ratio. Texas requires appraisal at 100% of market value as of Jan 1 (Tex. Tax Code § 23.01).

After-repair value: $26,000
Selling costs on exitassumed 8.0% of ARV — agent commission plus seller-side closing.: −$2,080
Rehabassumed No rehab budget entered — assumed $0. Tax-sale parcels are sold unseen and un-inspected; this is rarely correct.: −$0
Quiet title (required)assumed Midpoint of the typical TX range ($1,800–$5,000, ~5 months).: −$3,400
Deed recording and transferassumed Typical TX recording and deed issuance cost.: −$400
Holding costs (7 months)assumed Taxes, insurance, and securing the property at ~$75/month.: −$525
Surviving liensassumed Assumed $0 — not verified. Municipal code-enforcement liens, special assessments, and federal tax liens can survive the sale.: −$0
Target profit (30% of ARV): −$7,800
Maximum bid: $11,795

If the owner redeems

Flat penalty

25%

You'd receive

$2,949

Window

730 days

A 25% flat penalty applies if the owner redeems. It is a penalty, not annual interest — the rate does not change with how early they redeem.

homestead and agricultural-use property (2 years); all other property is 180 days

Quoted elsewhere as 51% annualised — true only if they redeem on the last possible day and you immediately redeploy the capital. Treat the flat penalty as the real number.

Before you bid

Rehab is assumed to be $0. You cannot inspect these properties before bidding — budget for the worst plausible condition.
Surviving liens assumed $0. The 180-day vs 2-year window turns on the property's use at the time of sale, which the sale list does not state — treat any homestead-looking residential parcel as potentially 2-year.

AI risk brief

Reads this parcel against LlanoCounty's rules and flags what could go wrong — surviving liens, redemption exposure, title cost, and the facts we don't have. Takes about 35 seconds; the result is saved, so opening this lot again is instant.

Site & surroundings

Physical conditions that affect value and rarely appear on a listing.

Nothing adverse found within range of this parcel.

Context

FEMA flood zone X

Outside the 1% annual chance floodplain.

Elevation 871 ft

Ground elevation at the parcel. Compare with the FEMA base flood elevation where one is published.

Tract median home value $707,300

Self-reported median across the whole tract — context for whether a number is plausible, not a comparable and never a bid input.

Median household income $126,957

Tract median household income. Sets what a local buyer can finance.

0% of homes vacant year-round in Census Tract 9704.01

6 of 1,517 units vacant year-round, around or below the national tract average. A further 631 unit(s) are vacant seasonally — second homes rather than distress — so a headline vacancy rate quoted elsewhere for this tract will read 42%.

Deal analysis

Your maximum bid

$11,795

Walk away above this. Projected profit at the ceiling: $7,800 (30% of ARV).

Opening bid $4,679

Room to bid $7,116

Confidence: medium — ARV derived from assessed value, not comps.

History-guided suggestion

$7,054

Under max by $4,741

≤ oracle maxBid

Co-pilot target using recorded auction history. Never above your maximum bid.

History sample

—

Median sold

—

p(redeem) prior

—

No historical bucket for TX|Redeemable Deed; suggestion uses oracle only.

Your assumptions

After-repair value (ARV)

Override the derived estimate with real comps

Rehab budget

You cannot inspect before bidding — budget for the worst plausible condition

Known surviving liens

Municipal code enforcement, special assessments, federal tax liens

Target margin — 30%

Required profit as a share of ARV. 30% is a common floor for tax-sale flips.

How that number is built

Assessed $26,000 ÷ 1 assessment ratio. Texas requires appraisal at 100% of market value as of Jan 1 (Tex. Tax Code § 23.01).

After-repair value: $26,000
Selling costs on exitassumed 8.0% of ARV — agent commission plus seller-side closing.: −$2,080
Rehabassumed No rehab budget entered — assumed $0. Tax-sale parcels are sold unseen and un-inspected; this is rarely correct.: −$0
Quiet title (required)assumed Midpoint of the typical TX range ($1,800–$5,000, ~5 months).: −$3,400
Deed recording and transferassumed Typical TX recording and deed issuance cost.: −$400
Holding costs (7 months)assumed Taxes, insurance, and securing the property at ~$75/month.: −$525
Surviving liensassumed Assumed $0 — not verified. Municipal code-enforcement liens, special assessments, and federal tax liens can survive the sale.: −$0
Target profit (30% of ARV): −$7,800
Maximum bid: $11,795

If the owner redeems

Flat penalty

25%

You'd receive

$2,949

Window

730 days

A 25% flat penalty applies if the owner redeems. It is a penalty, not annual interest — the rate does not change with how early they redeem.

homestead and agricultural-use property (2 years); all other property is 180 days

Quoted elsewhere as 51% annualised — true only if they redeem on the last possible day and you immediately redeploy the capital. Treat the flat penalty as the real number.

Before you bid

Rehab is assumed to be $0. You cannot inspect these properties before bidding — budget for the worst plausible condition.
Surviving liens assumed $0. The 180-day vs 2-year window turns on the property's use at the time of sale, which the sale list does not state — treat any homestead-looking residential parcel as potentially 2-year.